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Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. — Liga Profesional Argentina

Estudiantes L.P. crestEstudiantes L.P.
Full time3–0
Gimnasia M. crestGimnasia M.

How the call landed

Liga Profesional Argentina·6 Oct
1 market hit
Model called
Estudiantes L.P. crestELP1–2GMGimnasia M. crest
Full time
Estudiantes L.P. crestELP3–0GMGimnasia M. crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 3-0 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.48

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLiga Profesional Argentina
Tue 6 Oct · 00:00 SAST
Estudiantes L.P. crestEstudiantes L.P.
Projected1–2xG 0.90 · 2.40
Gimnasia M. crestGimnasia M.

The model leans Gimnasia M (69%), projecting 1-2.

ELPDrawGM
Model confidenceModerate
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultGimnasia M win69%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.565%
Double chanceDraw or Gimnasia M88%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Gimnasia M (69%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 0.9–2.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 65%. Model projects 0.91–2.42 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → GM

    Model projects 0.91–2.42 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~65% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Form & table

Estudiantes L.P. crest
Estudiantes L.P.
vs
Gimnasia M.
Gimnasia M. crest
1League position11
31Points19
19Goals for14
7Goals against22
12Goal difference-8

Current ARG table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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