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Boca Juniors vs River Plate — Liga Profesional Argentina

Boca Juniors crestBoca Juniors
Sun 1 Nov20:00SAST
River Plate crestRiver Plate

The model’s prediction

Featured pickLiga Profesional Argentina
Sun 1 Nov · 20:00 SAST
Boca Juniors crestBoca Juniors
Projected0–0xG 1.30 · 0.90
River Plate crestRiver Plate

Too close to call (37% draw), projecting 0-0.

BJDrawRP
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultDraw37%
Both teams to scoreNo56%
Total goalsUnder 2.562%
Double chanceBoca Juniors or draw70%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

Too close to call (37% draw), projecting 0-0.

Projected 0-0 from 1.3–0.9 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 44%, over 2.5 goals 38%. Model projects 1.32–0.90 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → BJ

    Model projects 1.32–0.90 expected goals

  • Low-tempo profile

    → Neutral

    Under 2.5 goals ~62% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

All markets

  • Match result

    Draw37% model probability

  • Double chance

    Boca Juniors or draw70% model probability

  • Draw no bet

    No strong leanToo close to call

Double chance and draw no bet are worked out from the same win/draw/win probabilities as the result call.

Form & table

Boca Juniors crest
Boca Juniors
vs
River Plate
River Plate crest
2League position2
30Points29
22Goals for22
9Goals against12
13Goal difference10

Current ARG table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Model vs market

How the model compares with the bookmakers

Model probability, market probability and odds per outcome
OutcomeModelMarketGapFair odds (model)Avg market odds
Boca Juniors33%41%-8 pts3.032.27
Draw37%31%+6 pts2.703.04
River Plate30%28%+2 pts3.333.27

Market = average of 10 bookmakers with their margin (≈108%) removed, snapshot . Fair odds are 1 ÷ the model’s probability. Two estimates side by side — not a betting recommendation; a gap is not evidence of value. 18+, play responsibly.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. OriginalBaseline modelCall only
    River Plate winConfidence 10% (probabilities not recorded for this version)
    model 1.0.0
  2. Revision 1Baseline modelCall only
    River Plate winConfidence 10% (probabilities not recorded for this version)
    model 1.0.0
  3. Revision 2
    Boca Juniors winH 45% · D 26% · A 30%Projected 2–1xG 2.49–1.25
    model random-forest@v1
  4. Revision 3
    Boca Juniors winH 47% · D 25% · A 28%Projected 2–1xG 2.52–1.26
    model random-forest@v1
  5. Revision 4
    Boca Juniors winH 45% · D 25% · A 30%Projected 2–1xG 2.24–1.42
    model random-forest@v1
  6. Revision 5
    Boca Juniors winH 45% · D 25% · A 30%Projected 2–1xG 2.24–1.42
    model random-forest@v1
  7. Revision 6Current
    DrawH 33% · D 36% · A 30%Projected 0–0xG 1.32–0.90
    model random-forest@v1

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