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Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz — Austrian Bundesliga

Sturm Graz crestSturm Graz
Full time2–1
Lask Linz crestLask Linz

How the call landed

Austrian Bundesliga·13 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
Sturm Graz crestSG1–2LLLask Linz crest
Full time
Sturm Graz crestSG2–1LLLask Linz crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 2-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.28

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickAustrian Bundesliga
Sun 13 Sep · 17:00 SAST
Sturm Graz crestSturm Graz
Projected1–2xG 1.10 · 1.80
Lask Linz crestLask Linz

The model leans Lask Linz (53%), projecting 1-2.

SGDrawLL
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultLask Linz win53%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.555%
Double chanceDraw or Lask Linz80%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Lask Linz (53%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.1–1.8 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 55%. Model projects 1.08–1.82 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → LL

    Model projects 1.08–1.82 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Sturm Graz crest
Sturm Graz
vs
Lask Linz
Lask Linz crest
4League position3
18Points19
18Goals for24
12Goals against12
6Goal difference12

Current ABL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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