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Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife — Brasileirão Série B

Fortaleza EC crestFortaleza EC
Full time1–1
Nautico Recife crestNautico Recife

How the call landed

Brasileirão Série B·3 Oct
1 market hit
Model called
Fortaleza EC crestFE2–1NRNautico Recife crest
Full time
Fortaleza EC crestFE1–1NRNautico Recife crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.32

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickBrasileirão Série B
Sat 3 Oct · 02:35 SAST
Fortaleza EC crestFortaleza EC
Projected2–1xG 2.30 · 1.00
Nautico Recife crestNautico Recife

The model leans Fortaleza Ec (57%), projecting 2-1.

FEDrawNR
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultFortaleza Ec win57%
Both teams to scoreYes56%
Total goalsOver 2.563%
Double chanceFortaleza Ec or draw81%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Fortaleza Ec (57%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 2.3–1.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 56%, over 2.5 goals 63%. Model projects 2.27–0.99 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → FE

    Model projects 2.27–0.99 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~63% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Fortaleza EC crest
Fortaleza EC
vs
Nautico Recife
Nautico Recife crest
4League position15
61Points43
43Goals for39
31Goals against46
12Goal difference-7

Current SÉB table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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