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Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia — Brasileirão

Atletico Paranaense crestAtletico Paranaense
Full time2–1
Bahia crestBahia

How the call landed

Brasileirão·21 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Atletico Paranaense crestAP0–3BAHBahia crest
Full time
Atletico Paranaense crestAP2–1BAHBahia crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 2-1 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.59

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickBrasileirão
Mon 21 Sep · 00:30 SAST
Atletico Paranaense crestAtletico Paranaense
Projected0–3xG 0.80 · 2.60
Bahia crestBahia

The model leans Bahia (77%), projecting 0-3.

APDrawBAH
Model confidenceModerate
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultBahia win77%
Both teams to scoreNo51%
Total goalsOver 2.565%
Double chanceDraw or Bahia92%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Bahia (77%), projecting 0-3.

Projected 0-3 from 0.8–2.6 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 49%, over 2.5 goals 65%. Model projects 0.77–2.60 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → BAH

    Model projects 0.77–2.60 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~65% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Form & table

Atletico Paranaense crest
Atletico Paranaense
vs
Bahia
Bahia crest
4League position6
54Points53
50Goals for48
38Goals against42
12Goal difference6

Current BRA table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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