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Gremio vs Palmeiras — Brasileirão

Full time0–0

How the call landed

Brasileirão·20 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Gremio crestGRE0–3PALPalmeiras crest
Full time
Gremio crestGRE0–0PALPalmeiras crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 0-0 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.62

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickBrasileirão
Sun 20 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Gremio crestGremio
Projected0–3xG 0.70 · 2.60
Palmeiras crestPalmeiras

The model leans Palmeiras (79%), projecting 0-3.

GREDrawPAL
Model confidenceHigh
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultPalmeiras win79%
Both teams to scoreNo54%
Total goalsOver 2.563%
Double chanceDraw or Palmeiras93%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Palmeiras (79%), projecting 0-3.

Projected 0-3 from 0.7–2.6 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 46%, over 2.5 goals 63%. Model projects 0.68–2.55 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → PAL

    Model projects 0.68–2.55 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~63% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Form & table

Gremio crest
Gremio
vs
Palmeiras
Palmeiras crest
17League position2
34Points70
35Goals for56
44Goals against22
-9Goal difference34

Current BRA table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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