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Flamengo vs Gremio — Brasileirão

Flamengo crestFlamengo
Thu 5 Nov00:30SAST
Gremio crestGremio

The model’s prediction

Featured pickBrasileirão
Thu 5 Nov · 00:30 SAST
Flamengo crestFlamengo
Projected2–0xG 2.10 · 0.20
Gremio crestGremio

The model leans Flamengo (59%), projecting 2-0.

FLADrawGRE
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultFlamengo win59%
Both teams to scoreNo51%
Total goalsUnder 2.555%
Double chanceFlamengo or draw82%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Flamengo (59%), projecting 2-0.

Projected 2-0 from 2.1–0.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 49%, over 2.5 goals 45%. Model projects 2.11–0.15 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → FLA

    Model projects 2.11–0.15 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

All markets

  • Match result

    Flamengo win59% model probability

  • Double chance

    Flamengo or draw82% model probability

  • Draw no bet

    Flamengo77% model probability

Double chance and draw no bet are worked out from the same win/draw/win probabilities as the result call.

Form & table

Flamengo crest
Flamengo
vs
Gremio
Gremio crest
1League position17
70Points34
64Goals for35
27Goals against44
37Goal difference-9

Current BRA table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. OriginalBaseline modelCall only
    DrawConfidence 2% (probabilities not recorded for this version)
    model 1.0.0
  2. Revision 1Baseline modelCall only
    Flamengo winConfidence 61% (probabilities not recorded for this version)
    model random-forest@v1
  3. Revision 2
    Flamengo winH 62% · D 21% · A 17%Projected 1–0xG 1.75–0.15
    model random-forest@v1
  4. Revision 3
    Flamengo winH 69% · D 16% · A 14%Projected 2–0xG 2.43–0.15
    model random-forest@v1
  5. Revision 4
    Flamengo winH 69% · D 16% · A 14%Projected 2–0xG 2.43–0.15
    model random-forest@v1
  6. Revision 5Current
    Flamengo winH 59% · D 23% · A 18%Projected 2–0xG 2.11–0.15
    model random-forest@v1

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