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Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense — Brasileirão

Gremio crestGremio
Fri 30 Oct02:30SAST
Atletico Paranaense crestAtletico Paranaense

The model’s prediction

Featured pickBrasileirão
Fri 30 Oct · 02:30 SAST
Gremio crestGremio
Projected0–1xG 0.60 · 1.20
Atletico Paranaense crestAtletico Paranaense

No strong lean — near even (30% / 32% / 38%), projecting 0-1.

GREDrawAP
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean38%
Both teams to scoreNo51%
Total goalsUnder 2.555%
Double chanceNo strong lean70%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (30% / 32% / 38%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 0.6–1.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 49%, over 2.5 goals 45%. Model projects 0.58–1.24 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → AP

    Model projects 0.58–1.24 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

All markets

  • Match result

    No strong leanToo close to call

  • Double chance

    No strong leanToo close to call

  • Draw no bet

    No strong leanToo close to call

Double chance and draw no bet are worked out from the same win/draw/win probabilities as the result call.

Form & table

Gremio crest
Gremio
vs
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense crest
17League position4
34Points54
35Goals for50
44Goals against38
-9Goal difference12

Current BRA table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Model vs market

How the model compares with the bookmakers

Model probability, market probability and odds per outcome
OutcomeModelMarketGapFair odds (model)Avg market odds
Gremio30%38%-8 pts3.332.45
Draw32%28%+4 pts3.133.32
Atletico Paranaense38%33%+5 pts2.632.81

Market = average of 10 bookmakers with their margin (≈107%) removed, snapshot . Fair odds are 1 ÷ the model’s probability. Two estimates side by side — not a betting recommendation; a gap is not evidence of value. 18+, play responsibly.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. OriginalBaseline modelCall only
    Gremio winConfidence 46% (probabilities not recorded for this version)
    model 1.0.0
  2. Revision 1Baseline modelCall only
    Atletico Paranaense winConfidence 15% (probabilities not recorded for this version)
    model random-forest@v1
  3. Revision 2
    Atletico Paranaense winH 34% · D 31% · A 35%Projected 1–2xG 1.46–2.04
    model random-forest@v1
  4. Revision 3
    Atletico Paranaense winH 30% · D 31% · A 40%Projected 1–2xG 1.43–2.31
    model random-forest@v1
  5. Revision 4
    Atletico Paranaense winH 30% · D 31% · A 40%Projected 1–2xG 1.43–2.31
    model random-forest@v1
  6. Revision 5
    Atletico Paranaense winH 29% · D 32% · A 39%Projected 1–2xG 1.05–1.85
    model random-forest@v1
  7. Revision 6Current
    Atletico Paranaense winH 30% · D 32% · A 38%Projected 0–1xG 0.58–1.24
    model random-forest@v1

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