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Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo — Brasileirão

Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama
Fri 30 Oct01:00SAST
Flamengo crestFlamengo

The model’s prediction

Featured pickBrasileirão
Fri 30 Oct · 01:00 SAST
Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama
Projected0–0xG 1.00 · 1.50
Flamengo crestFlamengo

Too close to call (38% draw), projecting 0-0.

VDGDrawFLA
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultDraw38%
Both teams to scoreNo51%
Total goalsUnder 2.555%
Double chanceDraw or Flamengo72%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

Too close to call (38% draw), projecting 0-0.

Projected 0-0 from 1.0–1.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 49%, over 2.5 goals 45%. Model projects 1.03–1.47 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → FLA

    Model projects 1.03–1.47 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

All markets

  • Match result

    Draw38% model probability

  • Double chance

    Draw or Flamengo72% model probability

  • Draw no bet

    No strong leanToo close to call

Double chance and draw no bet are worked out from the same win/draw/win probabilities as the result call.

Form & table

Vasco DA Gama crest
Vasco DA Gama
vs
Flamengo
Flamengo crest
13League position2
38Points67
39Goals for61
45Goals against25
-6Goal difference36

Current BRA table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Model vs market

How the model compares with the bookmakers

Model probability, market probability and odds per outcome
OutcomeModelMarketGapFair odds (model)Avg market odds
Vasco DA Gama28%27%+1 pts3.573.54
Draw38%27%+11 pts2.633.47
Flamengo34%46%-12 pts2.942.04

Market = average of 8 bookmakers with their margin (≈106%) removed, snapshot . Fair odds are 1 ÷ the model’s probability. Two estimates side by side — not a betting recommendation; a gap is not evidence of value. 18+, play responsibly.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. OriginalBaseline modelCall only
    Vasco DA Gama winConfidence 21% (probabilities not recorded for this version)
    model 1.0.0
  2. Revision 1Baseline modelCall only
    DrawConfidence 3% (probabilities not recorded for this version)
    model random-forest@v1
  3. Revision 2
    Vasco DA Gama winH 37% · D 37% · A 25%Projected 1–0xG 0.76–0.78
    model random-forest@v1
  4. Revision 3
    DrawH 26% · D 38% · A 36%Projected 0–0xG 0.99–1.31
    model random-forest@v1
  5. Revision 4
    DrawH 26% · D 38% · A 36%Projected 0–0xG 0.99–1.31
    model random-forest@v1
  6. Revision 5Current
    DrawH 28% · D 38% · A 34%Projected 0–0xG 1.03–1.47
    model random-forest@v1

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