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Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg — Bundesliga

Werder Bremen crestWerder Bremen
Full time3–2
FC Augsburg crestFC Augsburg

How the call landed

Bundesliga·19 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Werder Bremen crestWB1–0FAFC Augsburg crest
Full time
Werder Bremen crestWB3–2FAFC Augsburg crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-0, finished 3-2).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 3-2 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.25

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickBundesliga
Sat 19 Sep · 15:30 SAST
Werder Bremen crestWerder Bremen
Projected1–0xG 0.20 · 1.60
FC Augsburg crestFC Augsburg

No strong lean — near even (50% / 30% / 20%), projecting 1-0.

WBDrawFA
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean50%
Both teams to scoreNo83%
Total goalsUnder 2.573%
Double chanceNo strong lean80%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (50% / 30% / 20%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 0.2–1.6 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 17%, over 2.5 goals 27%. Model projects 0.24–1.58 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → FA

    Model projects 0.24–1.58 expected goals

  • Low-tempo profile

    → Neutral

    Under 2.5 goals ~73% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Werder Bremen crest
Werder Bremen
vs
FC Augsburg
FC Augsburg crest
6League position9
12Points9
15Goals for17
14Goals against13
1Goal difference4

Current BUN table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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