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1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim — Bundesliga

1. FC Köln crest1. FC Köln
Full time3–2
1899 Hoffenheim crest1899 Hoffenheim

How the call landed

Bundesliga·29 Aug
Result hit
Model called
1. FC Köln crest1FK2–11H1899 Hoffenheim crest
Full time
1. FC Köln crest1FK3–21H1899 Hoffenheim crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 2-1, finished 3-2).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 3-2 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.31

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickBundesliga
Sat 29 Aug · 15:30 SAST
1. FC Köln crest1. FC Köln
Projected2–1xG 1.50 · 2.10
1899 Hoffenheim crest1899 Hoffenheim

No strong lean — near even (45% / 21% / 34%), projecting 2-1.

1FKDraw1H
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean45%
Both teams to scoreYes68%
Total goalsOver 2.570%
Double chanceNo strong lean66%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (45% / 21% / 34%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.5–2.1 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 68%, over 2.5 goals 70%. Model projects 1.50–2.10 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → 1H

    Model projects 1.50–2.10 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~70% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~68% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

1. FC Köln crest
1. FC Köln
vs
1899 Hoffenheim
1899 Hoffenheim crest
12League position10
8Points9
8Goals for14
11Goals against14
-3Goal difference0

Current BUN table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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