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Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart — Bundesliga

Bayern München crestBayern München
Full time5–1
VfB Stuttgart crestVfB Stuttgart

How the call landed

Bundesliga·28 Aug
Result hit
Model called
Bayern München crestBMN1–0VSVfB Stuttgart crest
Full time
Bayern München crestBMN5–1VSVfB Stuttgart crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-0, finished 5-1).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 5-1 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.27

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickBundesliga
Fri 28 Aug · 20:30 SAST
Bayern München crestBayern München
Projected1–0xG 1.60 · 1.00
VfB Stuttgart crestVfB Stuttgart

No strong lean — near even (48% / 30% / 22%), projecting 1-0.

BMNDrawVS
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean48%
Both teams to scoreYes51%
Total goalsUnder 2.552%
Double chanceNo strong lean78%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (48% / 30% / 22%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.6–1.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 51%, over 2.5 goals 48%. Model projects 1.59–1.01 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → BMN

    Model projects 1.59–1.01 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Bayern München crest
Bayern München
vs
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart crest
1League position15
17Points6
25Goals for10
6Goals against13
19Goal difference-3

Current BUN table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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