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1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund — Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim crest1899 Hoffenheim
Full time2–3
Borussia Dortmund crestBorussia Dortmund

How the call landed

Bundesliga·5 Sep
Result hit
Model called
1899 Hoffenheim crest1H1–2BDBorussia Dortmund crest
Full time
1899 Hoffenheim crest1H2–3BDBorussia Dortmund crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-2, finished 2-3).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 2-3 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.30

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickBundesliga
Sat 5 Sep · 15:30 SAST
1899 Hoffenheim crest1899 Hoffenheim
Projected1–2xG 1.30 · 1.90
Borussia Dortmund crestBorussia Dortmund

No strong lean — near even (36% / 19% / 45%), projecting 1-2.

1HDrawBD
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean45%
Both teams to scoreYes62%
Total goalsOver 2.562%
Double chanceNo strong lean64%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (36% / 19% / 45%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.3–1.9 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 62%, over 2.5 goals 62%. Model projects 1.30–1.90 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → BD

    Model projects 1.30–1.90 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~62% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~62% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

1899 Hoffenheim crest
1899 Hoffenheim
vs
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund crest
10League position2
9Points17
14Goals for12
14Goals against4
0Goal difference8

Current BUN table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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