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15 de Agosto vs Fomboni Club — CAF Champions League

15 de Agosto crest15 de Agosto
Full time4–0
Fomboni Club crestFomboni Club

How the call landed

CAF Champions League·11 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
15 de Agosto crest1DA1–2FCFomboni Club crest
Full time
15 de Agosto crest1DA4–0FCFomboni Club crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 4-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.15

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCAF Champions League
Fri 11 Sep · 16:00 SAST
15 de Agosto crest15 de Agosto
Projected1–2xG 1.40 · 1.40
Fomboni Club crestFomboni Club

No strong lean — near even (37% / 24% / 39%), projecting 1-2.

1DADrawFC
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.551%
Double chanceNo strong lean63%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (37% / 24% / 39%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.4–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 51%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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