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ASC Kara vs ASEC Mimosas — CAF Champions League

ASC Kara crestASC Kara
Full time1–1
ASEC Mimosas crestASEC Mimosas

How the call landed

CAF Champions League·5 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
ASC Kara crestAK2–0AMASEC Mimosas crest
Full time
ASC Kara crestAK1–1AMASEC Mimosas crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence ModerateCalibration error 0.42

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCAF Champions League
Sat 5 Sep · 17:00 SAST
ASC Kara crestASC Kara
Projected2–0xG 2.60 · 0.90
ASEC Mimosas crestASEC Mimosas

The model leans Asc Kara (65%), projecting 2-0.

AKDrawAM
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultAsc Kara win65%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.568%
Double chanceAsc Kara or draw76%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Asc Kara (65%), projecting 2-0.

Projected 2-0 from 2.6–0.9 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 68%. Model projects 2.62–0.91 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → AK

    Model projects 2.62–0.91 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~68% likely

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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