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Colombe vs Stade Malien Bamako — CAF Champions League

Colombe crestColombe
Full time0–0
Stade Malien Bamako crestStade Malien Bamako

How the call landed

CAF Champions League·5 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Colombe crestCOL2–0SMBStade Malien Bamako crest
Full time
Colombe crestCOL0–0SMBStade Malien Bamako crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-0 — missed.

Confidence ModerateCalibration error 0.42

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCAF Champions League
Sat 5 Sep · 17:00 SAST
Colombe crestColombe
Projected2–0xG 3.00 · 0.70
Stade Malien Bamako crestStade Malien Bamako

The model leans Colombe (65%), projecting 2-0.

COLDrawSMB
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultColombe win65%
Both teams to scoreNo55%
Total goalsOver 2.570%
Double chanceColombe or draw76%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Colombe (65%), projecting 2-0.

Projected 2-0 from 3.0–0.7 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 45%, over 2.5 goals 70%. Model projects 2.98–0.66 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → COL

    Model projects 2.98–0.66 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~70% likely

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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