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Songo vs Petro de Luanda — CAF Champions League

Songo crestSongo
Full time0–1
Petro de Luanda crestPetro de Luanda

How the call landed

CAF Champions League·5 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Songo crestSON4–0PDLPetro de Luanda crest
Full time
Songo crestSON0–1PDLPetro de Luanda crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-1 — missed.

Confidence ModerateCalibration error 0.42

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCAF Champions League
Sat 5 Sep · 17:00 SAST
Songo crestSongo
Projected4–0xG 4.90 · 0.40
Petro de Luanda crestPetro de Luanda

The model leans Songo (65%), projecting 4-0.

SONDrawPDL
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultSongo win65%
Both teams to scoreNo72%
Total goalsOver 2.583%
Double chanceSongo or draw76%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Songo (65%), projecting 4-0.

Projected 4-0 from 4.9–0.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 28%, over 2.5 goals 83%. Model projects 4.90–0.36 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → SON

    Model projects 4.90–0.36 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~83% likely

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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