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Stade Malien Bamako vs Colombe — CAF Champions League

Stade Malien Bamako crestStade Malien Bamako
Full time0–0
Colombe crestColombe

How the call landed

CAF Champions League·13 Sep
Missed
Model called
Stade Malien Bamako crestSMB2–1COLColombe crest
Full time
Stade Malien Bamako crestSMB0–0COLColombe crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.26

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCAF Champions League
Sun 13 Sep · 18:00 SAST
Stade Malien Bamako crestStade Malien Bamako
Projected2–1xG 1.40 · 1.40
Colombe crestColombe

No strong lean — near even (51% / 30% / 19%), projecting 2-1.

SMBDrawCOL
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean51%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.551%
Double chanceNo strong lean81%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (51% / 30% / 19%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.4–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 51%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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