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Tusker vs Al Ahli Wad Medani — CAF Confederation Cup

Tusker crestTusker
Full time1–0
Al Ahli Wad Medani crestAl Ahli Wad Medani

How the call landed

CAF Confederation Cup·12 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
Tusker crestTUS0–1AAWAl Ahli Wad Medani crest
Full time
Tusker crestTUS1–0AAWAl Ahli Wad Medani crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).
  • –Total goals call landed (Under 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.37

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCAF Confederation Cup
Sat 12 Sep · 14:00 SAST
Tusker crestTusker
Projected0–1xG 0.80 · 1.80
Al Ahli Wad Medani crestAl Ahli Wad Medani

The model leans Al Ahli Wad Medani (61%), projecting 0-1.

TUSDrawAAW
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultAl Ahli Wad Medani win61%
Both teams to scoreNo55%
Total goalsUnder 2.554%
Double chanceDraw or Al Ahli Wad Medani85%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Al Ahli Wad Medani (61%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 0.8–1.8 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 45%, over 2.5 goals 46%. Model projects 0.78–1.75 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → AAW

    Model projects 0.78–1.75 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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