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Nations vs Diarra — CAF Confederation Cup

Nations crestNations
Full time1–1
Diarra crestDiarra

How the call landed

CAF Confederation Cup·13 Sep
Missed
Model called
Nations crestNAT4–0DIADiarra crest
Full time
Nations crestNAT1–1DIADiarra crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.90

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCAF Confederation Cup
Sun 13 Sep · 17:00 SAST
Nations crestNations
Projected4–0xG 4.50 · 0.50
Diarra crestDiarra

The model leans Nations (95%), projecting 4-0.

NATDrawDIA
Model confidenceHigh
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNations win95%
Both teams to scoreNo64%
Total goalsOver 2.583%
Double chanceNations or draw99%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Nations (95%), projecting 4-0.

Projected 4-0 from 4.5–0.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 36%, over 2.5 goals 83%. Model projects 4.48–0.47 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → NAT

    Model projects 4.48–0.47 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~83% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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