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Kitara vs Mogadishu City — CAF Confederation Cup

Kitara crestKitara
Full time2–0
Mogadishu City crestMogadishu City

How the call landed

CAF Confederation Cup·12 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Kitara crestKIT3–0MCMogadishu City crest
Full time
Kitara crestKIT2–0MCMogadishu City crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 3-0, finished 2-0).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-0 — partial.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.02

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCAF Confederation Cup
Sat 12 Sep · 15:00 SAST
Kitara crestKitara
Projected3–0xG 2.90 · 0.60
Mogadishu City crestMogadishu City

The model leans Kitara (84%), projecting 3-0.

KITDrawMC
Model confidenceHigh
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultKitara win84%
Both teams to scoreNo59%
Total goalsOver 2.567%
Double chanceKitara or draw95%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Kitara (84%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 2.9–0.6 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 41%, over 2.5 goals 67%. Model projects 2.92–0.57 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → KIT

    Model projects 2.92–0.57 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~67% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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