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Al Ahli Tripoli vs KMKM — CAF Confederation Cup

Al Ahli Tripoli crestAl Ahli Tripoli
Full time4–0
KMKM crestKMKM

How the call landed

CAF Confederation Cup·12 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Al Ahli Tripoli crestAAT1–2KMKKMKM crest
Full time
Al Ahli Tripoli crestAAT4–0KMKKMKM crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 4-0 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.52

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCAF Confederation Cup
Sat 12 Sep · 19:00 SAST
Al Ahli Tripoli crestAl Ahli Tripoli
Projected1–2xG 0.90 · 2.60
KMKM crestKMKM

The model leans Kmkm (73%), projecting 1-2.

AATDrawKMK
Model confidenceModerate
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultKmkm win73%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.568%
Double chanceDraw or Kmkm90%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Kmkm (73%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 0.9–2.6 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 68%. Model projects 0.91–2.61 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → KMK

    Model projects 0.91–2.61 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~68% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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