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Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma — UEFA Champions League

Fenerbahçe crestFenerbahçe
Full time1–1
AS Roma crestAS Roma

How the call landed

UEFA Champions League·10 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Fenerbahçe crestFE1–0ARAS Roma crest
Full time
Fenerbahçe crestFE1–1ARAS Roma crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Under 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence ModerateCalibration error 0.42

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Champions League
Thu 10 Sep · 18:45 SAST
Fenerbahçe crestFenerbahçe
Projected1–0xG 0.40 · 0.20
AS Roma crestAS Roma

The model leans Fenerbah E (65%), projecting 1-0.

FEDrawAR
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultFenerbah E win65%
Both teams to scoreNo96%
Total goalsUnder 2.598%
Double chanceFenerbah E or draw86%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Fenerbah E (65%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 0.4–0.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 4%, over 2.5 goals 2%. Under 2.5 goals ~98% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Low-tempo profile

    → Neutral

    Under 2.5 goals ~98% likely

Form & table

Fenerbahçe crest
Fenerbahçe
vs
AS Roma
AS Roma crest
31League position15
2Points4
3Goals for8
9Goals against5
-6Goal difference3

Current UCL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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