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Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal — UEFA Champions League

Borussia Dortmund crestBorussia Dortmund
Full time3–2
Villarreal crestVillarreal

How the call landed

UEFA Champions League·8 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Borussia Dortmund crestBD1–0VILVillarreal crest
Full time
Borussia Dortmund crestBD3–2VILVillarreal crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-0, finished 3-2).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 3-2 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.35

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Champions League
Tue 8 Sep · 21:00 SAST
Borussia Dortmund crestBorussia Dortmund
Projected1–0xG 1.40 · 1.40
Villarreal crestVillarreal

No strong lean — near even (41% / 18% / 41%), projecting 1-0.

BDDrawVIL
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean41%
Both teams to scoreYes57%
Total goalsOver 2.553%
Double chanceNo strong lean59%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (41% / 18% / 41%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.4–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 57%, over 2.5 goals 53%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Borussia Dortmund crest
Borussia Dortmund
vs
Villarreal
Villarreal crest
13League position19
6Points3
5Goals for8
4Goals against8
1Goal difference0

Current UCL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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