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Lille vs Real Betis — UEFA Champions League

Lille crestLille
Full time2–3
Real Betis crestReal Betis

How the call landed

UEFA Champions League·8 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
Lille crestLIL1–0RBReal Betis crest
Full time
Lille crestLIL2–3RBReal Betis crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-3 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.17

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Champions League
Tue 8 Sep · 21:00 SAST
Lille crestLille
Projected1–0xG 1.40 · 1.40
Real Betis crestReal Betis

No strong lean — near even (41% / 18% / 41%), projecting 1-0.

LILDrawRB
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean41%
Both teams to scoreYes57%
Total goalsOver 2.553%
Double chanceNo strong lean59%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (41% / 18% / 41%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.4–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 57%, over 2.5 goals 53%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Lille crest
Lille
vs
Real Betis
Real Betis crest
35League position5
0Points9
4Goals for7
10Goals against4
-6Goal difference3

Current UCL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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