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Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid — UEFA Champions League

Liverpool crestLiverpool
Full time2–1
Atletico Madrid crestAtletico Madrid

How the call landed

UEFA Champions League·9 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Liverpool crestLIV1–0AMAtletico Madrid crest
Full time
Liverpool crestLIV2–1AMAtletico Madrid crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-0, finished 2-1).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-1 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.35

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Champions League
Wed 9 Sep · 21:00 SAST
Liverpool crestLiverpool
Projected1–0xG 1.40 · 1.40
Atletico Madrid crestAtletico Madrid

No strong lean — near even (41% / 18% / 41%), projecting 1-0.

LIVDrawAM
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean41%
Both teams to scoreYes57%
Total goalsOver 2.553%
Double chanceNo strong lean59%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (41% / 18% / 41%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.4–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 57%, over 2.5 goals 53%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Liverpool crest
Liverpool
vs
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid crest
3League position16
9Points4
12Goals for4
7Goals against3
5Goal difference1

Current UCL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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