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Bodo/Glimt vs NEC Nijmegen — UEFA Champions League

Bodo/Glimt crestBodo/Glimt
Full time3–0
NEC Nijmegen crestNEC Nijmegen

How the call landed

UEFA Champions League·25 Aug
Result hit
Model called
Bodo/Glimt crestBG1–0NNNEC Nijmegen crest
Full time
Bodo/Glimt crestBG3–0NNNEC Nijmegen crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-0, finished 3-0).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 3-0 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.16

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Champions League
Tue 25 Aug · 21:00 SAST
Bodo/Glimt crestBodo/Glimt
Projected1–0xG 2.00 · 0.90
NEC Nijmegen crestNEC Nijmegen

The model leans Bodo Glimt (60%), projecting 1-0.

BGDrawNN
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultBodo Glimt win60%
Both teams to scoreYes51%
Total goalsOver 2.554%
Double chanceBodo Glimt or draw86%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Bodo Glimt (60%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 2.0–0.9 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 51%, over 2.5 goals 54%. Model projects 1.98–0.88 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → BG

    Model projects 1.98–0.88 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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