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Lyon vs Fenerbahçe — UEFA Champions League

Lyon crestLyon
Full time1–2
Fenerbahçe crestFenerbahçe

How the call landed

UEFA Champions League·26 Aug
2 markets hit
Model called
Lyon crestLYO3–0FEFenerbahçe crest
Full time
Lyon crestLYO1–2FEFenerbahçe crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-2 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.63

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickUEFA Champions League
Wed 26 Aug · 21:00 SAST
Lyon crestLyon
Projected3–0xG 3.00 · 0.80
Fenerbahçe crestFenerbahçe

The model leans Lyon (79%), projecting 3-0.

LYODrawFE
Model confidenceHigh
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultLyon win79%
Both teams to scoreYes50%
Total goalsOver 2.572%
Double chanceLyon or draw93%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Lyon (79%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 3.0–0.8 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 50%, over 2.5 goals 72%. Model projects 3.04–0.75 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → LYO

    Model projects 3.04–0.75 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~72% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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