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Norwich vs Bolton — Championship

Norwich crestNorwich
Full time3–4
Bolton crestBolton

How the call landed

Championship·20 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Norwich crestNOR3–0BOLBolton crest
Full time
Norwich crestNOR3–4BOLBolton crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 3-4 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.32

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickChampionship
Sun 20 Sep · 14:30 SAST
Norwich crestNorwich
Projected3–0xG 1.80 · 0.90
Bolton crestBolton

The model leans Norwich (56%), projecting 3-0.

NORDrawBOL
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNorwich win56%
Both teams to scoreNo50%
Total goalsOver 2.551%
Double chanceNorwich or draw82%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Norwich (56%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 1.8–0.9 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 50%, over 2.5 goals 51%. Model projects 1.79–0.91 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → NOR

    Model projects 1.79–0.91 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Norwich crest
Norwich
vs
Bolton
Bolton crest
20League position18
12Points14
20Goals for16
22Goals against23
-2Goal difference-7

Current CHAMP table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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