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Prat vs Athletic Club — Copa del Rey

Prat crestPrat
Full time1–6
Athletic Club crestAthletic Club

How the call landed

Copa del Rey·29 Oct
Result hit
Model called
Prat crestPRA0–1ACAthletic Club crest
Full time
Prat crestPRA1–6ACAthletic Club crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 0-1, finished 1-6).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-6 — partial.

Confidence ModerateCalibration error 0.11

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCopa del Rey
Thu 29 Oct · 22:00 SAST
Prat crestPrat
Projected0–1xG 1.40 · 0.40
Athletic Club crestAthletic Club

The model leans Athletic Club (67%), projecting 0-1.

PRADrawAC
Model confidenceModerate
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultAthletic Club win67%
Both teams to scoreNo52%
Total goalsOver 2.556%
Double chanceDraw or Athletic Club84%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Athletic Club (67%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 1.4–0.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 48%, over 2.5 goals 56%. Model projects 1.35–0.35 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → PRA

    Model projects 1.35–0.35 expected goals

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. Original
    Athletic Club winH 23% · D 29% · A 48%Projected 0–1xG 0.20–0.75
    model random-forest@v2
  2. Revision 1
    Athletic Club winH 23% · D 29% · A 48%Projected 0–1xG 0.20–0.75
    model random-forest@v2
  3. Revision 2Live at kickoff
    Athletic Club winH 16% · D 17% · A 66%Projected 0–1xG 1.35–0.35
    model random-forest@v2

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