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Hortaleza vs Sevilla — Copa del Rey

Hortaleza crestHortaleza
Thu 29 Oct22:00SAST
Sevilla crestSevilla

The model’s prediction

Featured pickCopa del Rey
Thu 29 Oct · 22:00 SAST
Hortaleza crestHortaleza
Projected3–4xG 3.40 · 4.40
Sevilla crestSevilla

The model leans Sevilla (60%), projecting 3-4.

HORDrawSEV
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultSevilla win60%
Both teams to scoreNo52%
Total goalsOver 2.556%
Double chanceDraw or Sevilla80%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Sevilla (60%), projecting 3-4.

Projected 3-4 from 3.4–4.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 48%, over 2.5 goals 56%. Model projects 3.35–4.35 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → SEV

    Model projects 3.35–4.35 expected goals

All markets

  • Match result

    Sevilla win60% model probability

  • Double chance

    Draw or Sevilla80% model probability

  • Draw no bet

    Sevilla75% model probability

Double chance and draw no bet are worked out from the same win/draw/win probabilities as the result call.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. Original
    Sevilla winH 26% · D 31% · A 43%Projected 1–4xG 1.13–4.07
    model random-forest@v2
  2. Revision 1
    Sevilla winH 26% · D 31% · A 43%Projected 1–4xG 1.13–4.07
    model random-forest@v2
  3. Revision 2Live at kickoff
    Sevilla winH 20% · D 20% · A 60%Projected 3–4xG 3.35–4.35
    model random-forest@v2

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