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Tips8ngBeautifAI Game

Varea vs FC Andorra — Copa del Rey

Varea crestVarea
Full time0–3
FC Andorra crestFC Andorra

How the call landed

Copa del Rey·29 Oct
2 markets hit
Model called
Varea crestVAR2–1FAFC Andorra crest
Full time
Varea crestVAR0–3FAFC Andorra crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-3 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.16

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCopa del Rey
Thu 29 Oct · 21:00 SAST
Varea crestVarea
Projected2–1xG 1.40 · 1.40
FC Andorra crestFC Andorra

No strong lean — near even (40% / 22% / 38%), projecting 2-1.

VARDrawFA
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean40%
Both teams to scoreNo52%
Total goalsOver 2.556%
Double chanceNo strong lean62%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (40% / 22% / 38%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.4–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 48%, over 2.5 goals 56%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. OriginalBaseline modelCall only
    Varea winConfidence 18% (probabilities not recorded for this version)
    model 1.0.0
  2. Revision 1Baseline modelCall only
    Varea winConfidence 10% (probabilities not recorded for this version)
    model random-forest@v2
  3. Revision 2
    Varea winH 42% · D 24% · A 33%Projected 2–1xG 2.35–2.35
    model random-forest@v2
  4. Revision 3Live at kickoff
    Varea winH 40% · D 22% · A 38%Projected 2–1xG 1.35–1.35
    model random-forest@v2

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