Skip to content
Tips8ngBeautifAI Game

Gimnástica Torrelavega vs UD Ourense — Copa del Rey

Gimnástica Torrelavega crestGimnástica Torrelavega
Full time1–1
UD Ourense crestUD Ourense

How the call landed

Copa del Rey·29 Oct
Missed
Model called
Gimnástica Torrelavega crestGST2–1UOUD Ourense crest
Full time
Gimnástica Torrelavega crestGST1–1UOUD Ourense crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.16

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCopa del Rey
Thu 29 Oct · 21:30 SAST
Gimnástica Torrelavega crestGimnástica Torrelavega
Projected2–1xG 1.40 · 1.40
UD Ourense crestUD Ourense

No strong lean — near even (40% / 22% / 38%), projecting 2-1.

GSTDrawUO
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean40%
Both teams to scoreNo52%
Total goalsOver 2.556%
Double chanceNo strong lean62%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (40% / 22% / 38%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.4–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 48%, over 2.5 goals 56%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. OriginalBaseline modelCall only
    DrawConfidence 1% (probabilities not recorded for this version)
    model 1.0.0
  2. Revision 1Baseline modelCall only
    Gimnástica Torrelavega winConfidence 7% (probabilities not recorded for this version)
    model random-forest@v2
  3. Revision 2
    Gimnástica Torrelavega winH 40% · D 27% · A 33%Projected 2–1xG 1.35–1.35
    model random-forest@v2
  4. Revision 3Live at kickoff
    Gimnástica Torrelavega winH 40% · D 22% · A 38%Projected 2–1xG 1.35–1.35
    model random-forest@v2

Want the full match intelligence?

Pre-match analysis and every market live in your dashboard.

Open in dashboard
More CDR fixtures →The predictions board →Today’s Tips5 →