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Tudelano vs Zaragoza — Copa del Rey

Tudelano crestTudelano
Full time0–4
Zaragoza crestZaragoza

How the call landed

Copa del Rey·27 Oct
2 markets hit
Model called
Tudelano crestTUD1–0ZARZaragoza crest
Full time
Tudelano crestTUD0–4ZARZaragoza crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-4 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.16

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCopa del Rey
Tue 27 Oct · 22:00 SAST
Tudelano crestTudelano
Projected1–0xG 0.40 · 0.40
Zaragoza crestZaragoza

No strong lean — near even (40% / 27% / 33%), projecting 1-0.

TUDDrawZAR
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean40%
Both teams to scoreNo52%
Total goalsOver 2.556%
Double chanceNo strong lean67%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (40% / 27% / 33%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 0.4–0.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 48%, over 2.5 goals 56%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. OriginalBaseline modelCall only
    Tudelano winConfidence 83% (probabilities not recorded for this version)
    model 1.0.0
  2. Revision 1Baseline modelCall only
    Tudelano winConfidence 8% (probabilities not recorded for this version)
    model random-forest@v2
  3. Revision 2Live at kickoff
    Tudelano winH 40% · D 27% · A 33%Projected 1–0xG 0.35–0.35
    model random-forest@v2

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