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Atletico Calatayud vs Bazt N — Copa del Rey

Atletico Calatayud
Full time2–0
Bazt N

How the call landed

Copa del Rey·26 Sep
Missed
Model called
Atletico Calatayud crestAC1–2BNBaztán crest
Full time
Atletico Calatayud crestAC2–0BNBaztán crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 2-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.24

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCopa del Rey
Sat 26 Sep · 18:00 SAST
Atletico Calatayud
Projected1–2xG 2.40 · 2.40
Bazt N

No strong lean — near even (25% / 26% / 49%), projecting 1-2.

ACDrawBN
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean49%
Both teams to scoreYes82%
Total goalsOver 2.585%
Double chanceNo strong lean75%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (25% / 26% / 49%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 2.4–2.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 82%, over 2.5 goals 85%. Over 2.5 goals ~85% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~85% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~82% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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