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Alcazar vs Talayuela — Copa del Rey

Alcazar crestAlcazar
Full time1–0
Talayuela crestTalayuela

How the call landed

Copa del Rey·4 Oct
Missed
Model called
Alcazar crestALC1–2TALTalayuela crest
Full time
Alcazar crestALC1–0TALTalayuela crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.17

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCopa del Rey
Sun 4 Oct · 17:30 SAST
Alcazar crestAlcazar
Projected1–2xG 1.40 · 1.40
Talayuela crestTalayuela

No strong lean — near even (38% / 21% / 41%), projecting 1-2.

ALCDrawTAL
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean41%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.551%
Double chanceNo strong lean62%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (38% / 21% / 41%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.4–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 51%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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