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Talayuela vs Alcazar — Copa del Rey

Talayuela crestTalayuela
Full time1–2
Alcazar crestAlcazar

How the call landed

Copa del Rey·27 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
Talayuela crestTAL2–1ALCAlcazar crest
Full time
Talayuela crestTAL1–2ALCAlcazar crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.16

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCopa del Rey
Sun 27 Sep · 17:30 SAST
Talayuela crestTalayuela
Projected2–1xG 1.40 · 1.40
Alcazar crestAlcazar

No strong lean — near even (40% / 22% / 38%), projecting 2-1.

TALDrawALC
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean40%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.551%
Double chanceNo strong lean62%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (40% / 22% / 38%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.4–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 51%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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