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Baztán vs Atletico Calatayud — Copa del Rey

Baztán crestBaztán
Full time1–2
Atletico Calatayud crestAtletico Calatayud

How the call landed

Copa del Rey·3 Oct
1 market hit
Model called
Baztán crestBN3–0ACAtletico Calatayud crest
Full time
Baztán crestBN1–2ACAtletico Calatayud crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.22

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCopa del Rey
Sat 3 Oct · 17:30 SAST
Baztán crestBaztán
Projected3–0xG 0.60 · 3.40
Atletico Calatayud crestAtletico Calatayud

No strong lean — near even (46% / 23% / 31%), projecting 3-0.

BNDrawAC
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean46%
Both teams to scoreNo58%
Total goalsOver 2.575%
Double chanceNo strong lean69%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (46% / 23% / 31%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 0.6–3.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 42%, over 2.5 goals 75%. Model projects 0.57–3.43 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → AC

    Model projects 0.57–3.43 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~75% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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