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Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle — Copa Libertadores

Flamengo crestFlamengo
Full time1–1
Independiente del Valle crestIndependiente del Valle

How the call landed

Copa Libertadores·18 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Flamengo crestFLA1–0IDVIndependiente del Valle crest
Full time
Flamengo crestFLA1–1IDVIndependiente del Valle crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Under 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.23

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCopa Libertadores
Fri 18 Sep · 02:30 SAST
Flamengo crestFlamengo
Projected1–0xG 1.60 · 1.00
Independiente del Valle crestIndependiente del Valle

No strong lean — near even (48% / 30% / 22%), projecting 1-0.

FLADrawIDV
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean48%
Both teams to scoreNo51%
Total goalsUnder 2.553%
Double chanceNo strong lean78%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (48% / 30% / 22%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.6–1.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 49%, over 2.5 goals 47%. Model projects 1.57–0.98 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → FLA

    Model projects 1.57–0.98 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Flamengo crest
Flamengo
vs
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle crest
1League position1
16Points13
14Goals for11
2Goals against6
12Goal difference5

Current LIB table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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