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Corinthians vs Estudiantes L.P. — Copa Libertadores

Corinthians crestCorinthians
Full time0–1
Estudiantes L.P. crestEstudiantes L.P.

How the call landed

Copa Libertadores·17 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Corinthians crestCOR3–0ELPEstudiantes L.P. crest
Full time
Corinthians crestCOR0–1ELPEstudiantes L.P. crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-1 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.77

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCopa Libertadores
Thu 17 Sep · 02:30 SAST
Corinthians crestCorinthians
Projected3–0xG 3.20 · 0.60
Estudiantes L.P. crestEstudiantes L.P.

The model leans Corinthians (87%), projecting 3-0.

CORDrawELP
Model confidenceHigh
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultCorinthians win87%
Both teams to scoreNo59%
Total goalsOver 2.571%
Double chanceCorinthians or draw96%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Corinthians (87%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 3.2–0.6 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 41%, over 2.5 goals 71%. Model projects 3.17–0.55 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → COR

    Model projects 3.17–0.55 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~71% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Form & table

Corinthians crest
Corinthians
vs
Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes L.P. crest
1League position2
11Points9
8Goals for6
4Goals against5
4Goal difference1

Current LIB table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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