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Palermo vs Mantova — Coppa Italia

Palermo crestPalermo
Full time5–2
Mantova crestMantova

How the call landed

Coppa Italia·3 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Palermo crestPAL2–0MANMantova crest
Full time
Palermo crestPAL5–2MANMantova crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 2-0, finished 5-2).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 5-2 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.22

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCoppa Italia
Thu 3 Sep · 18:00 SAST
Palermo crestPalermo
Projected2–0xG 2.30 · 0.50
Mantova crestMantova

The model leans Palermo (53%), projecting 2-0.

PALDrawMAN
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultPalermo win53%
Both teams to scoreNo65%
Total goalsOver 2.552%
Double chancePalermo or draw79%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Palermo (53%), projecting 2-0.

Projected 2-0 from 2.3–0.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 35%, over 2.5 goals 52%. Model projects 2.25–0.50 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → PAL

    Model projects 2.25–0.50 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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