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Sassuolo vs Frosinone — Coppa Italia

Sassuolo crestSassuolo
Full time1–1
Frosinone crestFrosinone

How the call landed

Coppa Italia·2 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
Sassuolo crestSAS1–0FROFrosinone crest
Full time
Sassuolo crestSAS1–1FROFrosinone crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Under 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.26

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickCoppa Italia
Wed 2 Sep · 15:00 SAST
Sassuolo crestSassuolo
Projected1–0xG 1.30 · 1.30
Frosinone crestFrosinone

No strong lean — near even (50% / 29% / 21%), projecting 1-0.

SASDrawFRO
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean50%
Both teams to scoreYes51%
Total goalsUnder 2.554%
Double chanceNo strong lean79%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (50% / 29% / 21%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.3–1.3 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 51%, over 2.5 goals 46%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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