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Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Freiburg — DFB-Pokal

Fortuna Düsseldorf crestFortuna Düsseldorf
Full time1–5
SC Freiburg crestSC Freiburg

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·23 Aug
2 markets hit
Model called
Fortuna Düsseldorf crestFDS2–1SFSC Freiburg crest
Full time
Fortuna Düsseldorf crestFDS1–5SFSC Freiburg crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-5 — missed.

Confidence ModerateCalibration error 0.42

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Sun 23 Aug · 18:00 SAST
Fortuna Düsseldorf crestFortuna Düsseldorf
Projected2–1xG 2.40 · 1.10
SC Freiburg crestSC Freiburg

The model leans Fortuna D Sseldorf (65%), projecting 2-1.

FDSDrawSF
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultFortuna D Sseldorf win65%
Both teams to scoreYes59%
Total goalsOver 2.568%
Double chanceFortuna D Sseldorf or draw86%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Fortuna D Sseldorf (65%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 2.4–1.1 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 59%, over 2.5 goals 68%. Model projects 2.44–1.05 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → FDS

    Model projects 2.44–1.05 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~68% likely

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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