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Eintracht Trier vs RB Leipzig — DFB-Pokal

Eintracht Trier crestEintracht Trier
Full time0–6
RB Leipzig crestRB Leipzig

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·22 Aug
1 market hit
Model called
Eintracht Trier crestET1–0RLRB Leipzig crest
Full time
Eintracht Trier crestET0–6RLRB Leipzig crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-6 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.12

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Sat 22 Aug · 18:00 SAST
Eintracht Trier crestEintracht Trier
Projected1–0xG 1.40 · 1.30
RB Leipzig crestRB Leipzig

No strong lean — near even (35% / 34% / 31%), projecting 1-0.

ETDrawRL
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean35%
Both teams to scoreYes54%
Total goalsOver 2.550%
Double chanceNo strong lean69%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (35% / 34% / 31%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.4–1.3 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 54%, over 2.5 goals 50%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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