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SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Arminia Bielefeld — DFB-Pokal

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach crestSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Full time2–2
Arminia Bielefeld crestArminia Bielefeld

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·22 Aug
2 markets hit
Model called
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach crestSSG1–0ABArminia Bielefeld crest
Full time
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach crestSSG2–2ABArminia Bielefeld crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.24

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Sat 22 Aug · 18:00 SAST
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach crestSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Projected1–0xG 1.70 · 1.10
Arminia Bielefeld crestArminia Bielefeld

No strong lean — near even (49% / 29% / 22%), projecting 1-0.

SSGDrawAB
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean49%
Both teams to scoreYes54%
Total goalsOver 2.552%
Double chanceNo strong lean78%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (49% / 29% / 22%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.7–1.1 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 54%, over 2.5 goals 52%. Model projects 1.70–1.07 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → SSG

    Model projects 1.70–1.07 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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