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FC Carl Zeiss Jena vs SV Darmstadt 98 — DFB-Pokal

FC Carl Zeiss Jena crestFC Carl Zeiss Jena
Full time1–2
SV Darmstadt 98 crestSV Darmstadt 98

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·23 Aug
1 market hit
Model called
FC Carl Zeiss Jena crestFCZ1–0SD9SV Darmstadt 98 crest
Full time
FC Carl Zeiss Jena crestFCZ1–2SD9SV Darmstadt 98 crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-2 — missed.

Confidence ModerateCalibration error 0.38

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Sun 23 Aug · 15:30 SAST
FC Carl Zeiss Jena crestFC Carl Zeiss Jena
Projected1–0xG 1.90 · 0.80
SV Darmstadt 98 crestSV Darmstadt 98

The model leans FC Carl Zeiss Jena (62%), projecting 1-0.

FCZDrawSD9
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultFC Carl Zeiss Jena win62%
Both teams to scoreNo52%
Total goalsOver 2.552%
Double chanceFC Carl Zeiss Jena or draw85%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans FC Carl Zeiss Jena (62%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.9–0.8 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 48%, over 2.5 goals 52%. Model projects 1.91–0.83 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → FCZ

    Model projects 1.91–0.83 expected goals

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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