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TSV 1860 München vs Holstein Kiel — DFB-Pokal

TSV 1860 München crestTSV 1860 München
Full time0–2
Holstein Kiel crestHolstein Kiel

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·22 Aug
Result hit
Model called
TSV 1860 München crestT1M0–1HKHolstein Kiel crest
Full time
TSV 1860 München crestT1M0–2HKHolstein Kiel crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 0-1, finished 0-2).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 0-2 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.26

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Sat 22 Aug · 18:00 SAST
TSV 1860 München crestTSV 1860 München
Projected0–1xG 1.10 · 1.70
Holstein Kiel crestHolstein Kiel

No strong lean — near even (23% / 29% / 48%), projecting 0-1.

T1MDrawHK
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean48%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.554%
Double chanceNo strong lean77%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (23% / 29% / 48%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 1.1–1.7 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 54%. Model projects 1.12–1.72 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → HK

    Model projects 1.12–1.72 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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