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Lüneburger SK Hansa vs Werder Bremen — DFB-Pokal

Lüneburger SK Hansa crestLüneburger SK Hansa
Full time0–3
Werder Bremen crestWerder Bremen

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·22 Aug
Result hit
Model called
Lüneburger SK Hansa crestLNS0–1WBWerder Bremen crest
Full time
Lüneburger SK Hansa crestLNS0–3WBWerder Bremen crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 0-1, finished 0-3).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 0-3 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.27

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Sat 22 Aug · 15:30 SAST
Lüneburger SK Hansa crestLüneburger SK Hansa
Projected0–1xG 1.10 · 1.70
Werder Bremen crestWerder Bremen

No strong lean — near even (22% / 29% / 49%), projecting 0-1.

LNSDrawWB
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean49%
Both teams to scoreYes53%
Total goalsOver 2.551%
Double chanceNo strong lean78%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (22% / 29% / 49%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 1.1–1.7 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 53%, over 2.5 goals 51%. Model projects 1.06–1.65 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → WB

    Model projects 1.06–1.65 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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