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Schott Mainz vs Borussia Mönchengladbach — DFB-Pokal

Schott Mainz crestSchott Mainz
Full time0–5
Borussia Mönchengladbach crestBorussia Mönchengladbach

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·23 Aug
1 market hit
Model called
Schott Mainz crestSM2–0BMNBorussia Mönchengladbach crest
Full time
Schott Mainz crestSM0–5BMNBorussia Mönchengladbach crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-5 — missed.

Confidence ModerateCalibration error 0.40

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Sun 23 Aug · 15:30 SAST
Schott Mainz crestSchott Mainz
Projected2–0xG 2.10 · 0.90
Borussia Mönchengladbach crestBorussia Mönchengladbach

The model leans Schott Mainz (63%), projecting 2-0.

SMDrawBMN
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultSchott Mainz win63%
Both teams to scoreYes52%
Total goalsOver 2.558%
Double chanceSchott Mainz or draw86%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Schott Mainz (63%), projecting 2-0.

Projected 2-0 from 2.1–0.9 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 52%, over 2.5 goals 58%. Model projects 2.12–0.90 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → SM

    Model projects 2.12–0.90 expected goals

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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