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FC Saarbrücken vs Hertha BSC — DFB-Pokal

FC Saarbrücken crestFC Saarbrücken
Full time1–1
Hertha BSC crestHertha BSC

How the call landed

DFB-Pokal·22 Aug
1 market hit
Model called
FC Saarbrücken crestFSC1–0HBHertha BSC crest
Full time
FC Saarbrücken crestFSC1–1HBHertha BSC crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Under 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.20

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickDFB-Pokal
Sat 22 Aug · 15:30 SAST
FC Saarbrücken crestFC Saarbrücken
Projected1–0xG 1.50 · 1.00
Hertha BSC crestHertha BSC

No strong lean — near even (45% / 31% / 24%), projecting 1-0.

FSCDrawHB
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean45%
Both teams to scoreNo52%
Total goalsUnder 2.556%
Double chanceNo strong lean76%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (45% / 31% / 24%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.5–1.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 48%, over 2.5 goals 44%. Model projects 1.45–0.98 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → FSC

    Model projects 1.45–0.98 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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